knowledge10.net

Tag: Oscars

  • Oscar Predictions: Scott Feinberg’s First Read of the 2025 Race

    Oscar Predictions: Scott Feinberg’s First Read of the 2025 Race

    Every awards season, The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg publishes his initial forecast for the Academy Awards. This ‘First Read’ is a snapshot of the race before the fall festival dust settles, blending insider whispers, industry trends, and historical patterns. It’s not a verdict it’s a starting gun. Here’s what his first forecast for the 2025 Oscars tells us about the season to come.

    The Man Behind the Forecast

    Scott Feinberg has spent years cultivating relationships with publicists, studio executives, and campaign strategists. His predictions are less about statistical modeling and more about reading the room—the buzz at Cannes, the murmurs from Telluride, the strategic pushes planned for the fall. He’s a predictor, not a voter, but his forecast carries weight because he’s plugged into the machinery that makes or breaks campaigns.

    For the uninitiated, the Feinberg Forecast tiers films from ‘Frontrunner’ to ‘Longshot’ across all 24 categories. The ‘First Read’ comes early—often before major festivals—so it’s inherently speculative. Yet it sets the narrative. Studios see where their films stand and adjust their strategies. Fans see what to watch. And the industry sees the shape of the season.

    The Lay of the Land: Early Frontrunners

    In his first forecast for the 2025 race, Feinberg’s Best Picture frontrunners include the usual suspects: a sepia-toned period drama, a controversial biopic, and at least one indie darling that emerged from Sundance. But the most telling signal is what he places in the ‘Likely’ tier—films that have strong support but haven’t yet reached consensus status.

    Take, for instance, the international contenders. In recent years, films like Parasite and Everything Everywhere All at Once have upended expectations. Feinberg’s forecast now has to account for a more globally-minded Academy. This year, a French-language drama and a South Korean thriller are both positioned as ‘Possible’ in Best Picture—a nod to how the membership has shifted.

    The Perils of Predicting Early

    History is littered with early frontrunners that stumbled. La La Land seemed unbeatable until Moonlight pulled off the upset. The Power of the Dog dominated precursors, only to lose to CODA. Feinberg knows this. His forecast is explicitly a snapshot, not a prophecy. That’s why he often includes caveats about unreleased films.

    Many December releases haven’t screened for anyone yet. Feinberg’s predictions for those are based on buzz and the pedigree of their filmmakers, not on actual viewing. This is where his forecast is most vulnerable to error. A film that looks like a sure thing on paper can crumble after a disastrous screening. Conversely, a quiet gem can emerge from nowhere.

    Category Confusion and Other Quirks

    One of the trickiest aspects of predicting the Oscars is category placement. Is that supporting performance actually lead? Is that sequel an adapted or original screenplay? Feinberg’s forecast reflects expected placements, which can change as campaigns evolve. A film might be submitted for Best Actor when everyone expects it in Supporting, and that shifts the entire race.

    Then there’s the international feature category, where each country submits one film. A strong French film might not even make the shortlist if France chooses a different submission. Feinberg has to track these decisions, which adds another layer of complexity.

    And for short films and craft categories, the betting is even more speculative. These voters are small, specialized groups with less public data. Feinberg’s forecasts there are educated guesses at best.

    The Insider’s Lens vs. The Critics’ Complaints

    Feinberg’s methodology is often criticized for over-weighting ‘Oscar-bait’—prestige biopics, period dramas, and sentimental favorites. Critics argue he ignores genre films and international cinema that the Academy is increasingly embracing. But Feinberg isn’t predicting what should win; he’s predicting what will win, based on evidence from past voting patterns and current industry chatter.

    That distinction is crucial. A ‘Frontrunner’ isn’t a lock. Even a film with strong buzz can lose if the preferential ballot for Best Picture fragments the vote. Feinberg’s tiers are probabilistic, not deterministic. He’s playing the odds, not making endorsements.

    What to Watch For This Season

    The first forecast for 2025 highlights several races to monitor. In Best Director, Feinberg sees a veteran auteur as the frontrunner, but a surprise from the indie circuit could shake things up. The acting categories are more fluid, with multiple contenders in the ‘Possible’ tier. And in the crafts, technical marvels like a VFX-heavy epic are likely, but the Academy’s taste for practical effects could complicate things.

    Feinberg also flags the growing influence of streaming services. With more films debuting on platforms like Netflix and Apple TV+, the traditional theatrical release is no longer a prerequisite for Oscar glory. That shift has made the race less predictable—and more exciting.

    The Bottom Line

    Scott Feinberg’s First Read is a valuable tool for understanding the Oscars’ early narrative, but it’s not the final word. As the season unfolds, films will rise and fall, campaigns will succeed or falter, and the forecast will evolve. For now, it’s a roadmap—imperfect, but essential for anyone who wants to follow the race.

    The Feinberg Forecast’s first read of the 2025 race is less a prediction of winners and more a map of the terrain. It tells us where the momentum is, which films have buzz, and which categories are still up for grabs. As the festivals premiere and campaigns kick into gear, expect this forecast to change. But for now, it’s the clearest picture we have of the road to the Oscars.

    Summary

    • Scott Feinberg’s First Read is an early snapshot of the Oscar race, based on industry sources and buzz, not a final verdict.
    • Early frontrunners often fade, so treat the forecast as probabilistic, not deterministic.
    • Category placement and international submissions can shift predictions significantly.
    • The Academy’s evolving membership makes the race more unpredictable than ever.
    • Feinberg’s insider perspective differs from critics’ preferences and statistical models.

    FAQ

    Q: What is the Feinberg Forecast?
    A: It’s a recurring column by The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg that predicts all 24 Oscar categories, using tiers like Frontrunner, Likely, Possible, and Longshot.

    Q: Is the First Read accurate?
    A: It’s an early snapshot. Some frontrunners hold, but many fade. The forecast is based on available evidence and shifts as the season progresses.

    Q: How does Feinberg make his predictions?
    A: He combines industry sources, festival buzz, precursor awards, and historical voting patterns, unlike statistical models or fan polls.

    Q: Why do early predictions often fail?
    A: Many films haven’t been widely screened, campaigns evolve, and the Academy’s preferential ballot for Best Picture can produce upsets.

    Q: Does Feinberg influence the awards?
    A: His forecast can shape narratives and campaign strategies, but he doesn’t vote. He’s a predictor, not a kingmaker.

  • Belgium Selects Lukas Dhont’s Cannes Prizewinning ‘Coward’ for International Feature Race

    Belgium Selects Lukas Dhont’s Cannes Prizewinning ‘Coward’ for International Feature Race

    Belgium has officially submitted Lukas Dhont’s latest film, Coward, as its entry for the International Feature Film category at the 99th Academy Awards, scheduled for March 2027. The announcement, made in September 2025, marks the third time the country has selected a Dhont film for Oscar consideration, following Girl (2018) and Close (2022).

    Coward arrives with significant momentum, having won the Best Actor Prize at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival, awarded jointly to its leads Emmanuel Macchia and Valentin Campagne. The film continues Dhont’s exploration of masculinity and emotional repression, themes that have defined his critically acclaimed career.

    A Three-Peat for Belgium’s Flagship Auteur

    Lukas Dhont has become Belgium’s most-repeated Oscar submission director, a distinction that underscores his status as the country’s preeminent filmmaker on the international stage. His debut, Girl (2018), about a transgender ballet dancer, won the Caméra d’Or at Cannes and was Belgium’s submission that year, though it did not secure a nomination. His sophomore effort, Close (2022), earned the Grand Prix at Cannes and went on to be nominated for the International Feature Oscar. Now, with Coward, he completes a trifecta of Cannes prizewinners and Oscar submissions.

    This consistent selection raises questions about Belgium’s film policy. Some observers might ask whether the national committee favors established auteurs over emerging voices. Yet Dhont’s track record—each film has premiered at Cannes and won a major prize—suggests the choices are merit-based. For comparison, France has repeatedly submitted films by Jacques Audiard, and Denmark has often turned to Thomas Vinterberg, indicating that relying on proven talent is a common strategy among countries seeking Oscar recognition.

    The Shared Acting Prize: A Rare Honor

    The Cannes Best Actor Prize was awarded jointly to Emmanuel Macchia and Valentin Campagne, a rare occurrence that highlights Coward‘s dual-lead structure. The film centers on two young male characters navigating themes of fear, identity, and cowardice, though specific plot details remain limited in public reporting. This performance-driven focus could resonate with Academy voters, who historically reward actor showcases. The joint prize also signals that the film’s emotional core rests on the chemistry between its leads—a factor that might be emphasized in the Oscar campaign.

    Thematic Positioning and Cultural Resonance

    If Coward continues Dhont’s exploration of masculinity and emotional repression—as seen in Close, which delved into the friendship between two teenage boys and a subsequent tragedy—it may tap into current conversations about men’s mental health and toxic masculinity. The film’s title itself is provocative, suggesting a confrontational examination of cowardice that could be read politically or personally. Early festival coverage describes a drama that challenges conventional notions of strength and vulnerability.

    This thematic angle could give Coward an edge in a category where films often stand out for their social relevance. However, it remains to be seen how the Academy’s international branch, which has its own distinct tastes, will receive the film.

    Awards Strategy and Early Announcement

    Belgium’s selection was announced in September 2025, relatively early in the awards season. Early announcements can generate momentum and increase festival visibility, a tactic that has worked for other countries. The film’s distributor will need a robust campaign to secure a spot on the shortlist—typically 15 films announced in December—and ultimately a nomination among the five finalists in January.

    While Cannes prizes signal critical acclaim, they do not guarantee Oscar success. Close was nominated; Girl was not. The Academy’s international branch has historically favored films with strong narratives and emotional impact, and Coward will need to stand out in a field of 80–100 country submissions.

    Belgium’s Oscar History

    Belgium has been submitting films to the International Feature category since 1967 and has received seven nominations but has never won. Notable past submissions include The Broken Circle Breakdown (2013) and Bullhead (2011), both nominated. Dhont’s consistent presence in the race positions him as a potential future winner for the country, should Coward or a subsequent film break through.

    As the 99th Academy Awards approach, all eyes will be on Coward and whether it can replicate the success of Close. With its Cannes pedigree, thematic depth, and performance-driven narrative, it has the ingredients to make a strong run—but the path to the Oscar is never straightforward.

    Belgium’s selection of Coward reaffirms Lukas Dhont’s place as a leading voice in European cinema. With a Cannes acting prize and a proven track record, the film enters the International Feature race with strong credentials. Whether it will join Close in the nomination circle remains to be seen, but Dhont’s growing reputation ensures that Coward will be a title to watch.

    Summary

    • Belgium has submitted Lukas Dhont’s Coward for the International Feature Oscar, marking his third submission.
    • Coward won the Best Actor Prize at Cannes 2025, shared by leads Emmanuel Macchia and Valentin Campagne.
    • Dhont’s previous submissions: Girl (2018) and Close (2022, nominated).
    • The film continues Dhont’s exploration of masculinity and emotional repression.
    • The 99th Oscars are set for March 2027; the shortlist is expected in December.

    FAQ

    Q: What is Coward about?
    A: Coward is a drama exploring themes of masculinity, fear, and identity, centered on two young male characters. Specific plot details remain limited.

    Q: Has Lukas Dhont been nominated for an Oscar before?
    A: Yes, his film Close was nominated for Best International Feature at the 95th Academy Awards.

    Q: Why is the Cannes Best Actor Prize significant?
    A: It was awarded jointly to both leads, a rare occurrence that highlights the film’s dual-lead structure and performance-driven nature.

    Q: When will the Oscar nominations be announced?
    A: The shortlist (typically 15 films) is usually announced in December, with nominations in January.

    Q: Has Belgium ever won the International Feature Oscar?
    A: No, Belgium has received seven nominations but has never won the category.